The Haphazard Blog

From what I heard on Monday, it seems pretty clear that Ben Roethlisberger settled with his accuser to avoid prosecution.

From the facts stated by the district attorney, something happened in the bathroom, but the accuser decided she didn’t want to pursue the matter and Roethlisberger was not going to speak with investigators any further.

After the district attorney announced his decision, Roethlisberger made a statement to the media and took no questions. There was a very big difference in his tone compared to what he had to say when he was hit with a civil suit for sexual assault. He denied all of the accusations in no uncertain terms and even his teammates echoed similar sentiments. He was telling everyone it wasn’t true. This time, he did not apologize for any of his actions. He made no denials. He only spoke of the prosecutor’s decision being right, about himself and football.

From this, I gather there was a confidential financial settlement in which Roethlisberger paid some money; he agreed not to attack the accuser; and he agreed not to deny the allegations. The accuser agreed not to pursue charges and did not have to recant (and perjure herself). The final proof will be no civil suit will be filed. Given the evidence and facts that the district attorney laid out, Roethlisberger would’ve had a hard time winning that case.

He still has the other case to deal with. I would expect that during any depositions, he would be asked about a settlement in this case and would have to answer. So it may just be a matter of time before we all know if he settled and how much he paid.

NFL free agency is only one day in, so I won’t be jumping to any conclusions on how the 2010 Patriots will fair at this point. But I do want to talk about the Patriots some.

Looking back to the 2009 season, they had quite a few problems. Throughout the whole season, they were unable to find a third receiver in an offense that has the 3 WR offense as its base offense. They traded for Greg Lewis and they cut him. They acquired Joey Galloway and cut him. Julian Edelman emerged as a surprise, but I don’t see him as an outside receiver. Brandon Tate was there for 2 games before injury ended his already short season. Wes Welker had a horrible injury and realistically, the earliest he could be returning is Week 7. Randy Moss revealed he was dealing with multiple injuries and it is wishful thinking that was the sole reason for his below average (for him) season. Saying they need to address WR is an understatement.

At running back they went with the by committee approach they have employed since Laurence Maroney was supposed to replace Corey Dillon. With aging backs, there were a lot of games lost to injury (16 games for 4 RBs, 25%).  Statistically, they seem fine, but they failed on more critical short run plays than I’d like to  remember.

On defense, the Patriots had a hard time making the plays to close out a game. I’ve already detailed how uncharacteristic the team was in a previous post, so I’ll avoid rehashing that. They need to transform the pass rush. Bill Belichick says that it’s a combination of the secondary and pass rush, but I think this is just hos way of avoiding throwing anyone under a bus. The problem has been the linebackers for years. These guys are so important to the defensive scheme. Their heyday was when they had a rotation on the outside of Willie McGinest, Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin and Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer on the inside. They are all gone and the only complete guy they have now is Jerod Mayo on the inside. Adailus Thomas has been a disappointment. Tully Banta-Cain does not hold up well against the run. Gary Guyton is showing a lot of promise. They are in desperate need of two complete outside LBs. It’s a tall order to find guys who can stop the run (set the edge), rush the passer and drop back and cover when they don’t rush the passer.

So now they can start to build a better team. I think all of the news that came out yesterday was carefully (and smartly) orchestrated by the Patriots. They cut Chris Baker (another TE mistake, along with trading for Alex Smith and cutting him) early in the day and then re-signed 3 players. They made the big splash with Vince Wilfork (“highest paid NT in NFL history”) and kept Tully Banta-Cain with a 3yr/$13.5M after letting him walk away for a 3yr/$9M deal in 2007. They also kept Stephen Neal.

Banta-Cain and Neal were both unrestricted free agents. I find it hard to believe that neither checked the market to see who else was interested at that point when the Patriots had more than enough time to complete a deal. With former Patriots coaches and executives spread all over, surely someone would make a run at them. I believe all the deals were done before free agency started and they delayed signing them to end up with positive press. There were also rumors flying around that the Patriots had made an offer to Julius Peppers (it’s pretty obvious that Peppers didn’t think it was serious if they did) and they were chasing Anquan Boldin (it wasn’t a serious chase when they wanted him to play out his contract after all he has wanted the last two years is a new one and a big raise).

So the Patriots got exactly what they wanted. Not many people talking about their failure at tight end or the fact that they didn’t bring in any new players on day one. Instead the focus is on them re-sigining their players, particularly Vince Wilfork and rumors that they tried to get big name guys. The reality is that they haven’t made the team any different from last year. They still have a lot to do. I’m hopeful that maybe they can find some key veterans like they did in 2003 (Rodney Harrison, Tyrone Poole, Rosevelt Colvin) after the initial frenzy ends.

The Manning Face Returns

I’m not sure that game could’ve played out any better if I planned it. The Saints won, the Colts lost.

I praised Manning for being clutch and what the victory would mean for his legacy. Then he throws a back-breaking interception returned for a touchdown in the 4th quarter to essentially end the game. They make Adam Vinatieri, the most clutch kicker in NFL history, inactive and watch Matt Stover miss a FG. It wasn’t Vanderjagt style, but Vinatieri doesn’t miss.

I got sucked in to the Manning hype. Letting the regular season overshadow the post-season. Even with the loss in SB XLII, Tom Brady is better. What was I thinking? They lose a SB, he has his knee destroyed and has a good season and I’m ready to accept Manning is better. I’m supposed to be smarter than that.

I thought if they won, people would wonder if they blew 19-0. It is starting to look like 17-0 is going to stand forever. Especially if they add 1 or 2 more regular season games. Now we know they blew a shot at 16-0 and the Super Bowl.

During the broadcast, they mentioned that New Orleans had a 1st half defense, 3rd quarter defense and stuff only for the 4th quarter. I think that is the best way to handle Peyton Manning.

Thank You for Choking

My favorite moment of the game was the pick-6. The horrible timing. Phil Sims declaring immediately before the play that the Saints shouldn’t blitz because Manning shredded the Jets and they blitz. Then Sims trying to explain himself instead of admitting he was dead wrong.

I admit I was concerned when Manning hit that long pass as they were trying to come back. But New Orleans was able to keep them out of the end zone. Very well done and well deserved.

Now that my personal Super Bowl curse is broken, I hope things are looking up on the Patriots front.

I think the Colts will win. I really want the Saints to win. I have been rooting for the loser the last 4 years (Seahawks, Bears, Patriots, Cardinals). I’m sorry New Orleans.

I think if Peyton Manning wins this one he passes Tom Brady right now, even while having one less Super Bowl ring. He will have totally turned around from when he just couldn’t win the big one. Just this season, he has been as clutch as anyone has ever been. No lead is safe with him. Sixty minutes of football is too long for him. So far, there hasn’t been a defense that has stopped him figuring them out. I’d consider either having two different schemes for the first half and second half if I was facing him. The question would be, is the defense smart enough to do it? Two weeks to prepare might be enough time.

I think this game will be a high scoring affair. I also think it will be close. The Colts defense is going to be impacted without a healthy Dwight Freeney. No one is going to stop Peyton Manning. 30 points or more for each team.

I hope I see the Manning face more than a few times tonight.

It has been a week of looking back on the Patriots and from what I gather, some big changes are likely coming. The big theme was a lack of leadership.

There was a culture in the locker roomthat was basically eliminated in one off-season. Rodney Harrison’s contract ended at the end of the season and he was going to take his time to decide on his future. The Patriots traded Mike Vrabel at the start of free agency for basically nothing. I don’t know if they traded him over a $1M roster bonus or because he wasn’t producing. Harrison decided to retire in June. Tedy Bruschi got through half of training camp and decided to retire. Then the Patriots traded Richard Seymour right before the season started. From what I can gather now, these guys were the “assholes” in the locker room. They were the vocal ones who would make sarcastic remarks like “leaving already?” to the rookie who was leaving before they were. They weren’t afraid to call out other team mates for anything they felt was lacking. Poor play, poor focus, poor discipline, etc.

When Harrison and Bruschi retired, they pointed to Brandon Meriweather and Jerod Mayo as leaders. The problem was, them, along with Tom Brady, Kevin Faulk, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren are all nice guys. They lead by example but they won’t call a team mate out. There were always stories about how during practice, Harrison would turn it into a real competition with Brady. His goal was to incense Brady every practice. He was vocal and clear about it. In turn, Brady wanted to beat Harrison. They made each other better every day. They pushed each other. And this was widespread through the whole team.

There was a good story Willie McGinest told to the Globe that kind of sums up what was lost:

“When we were there, we had a foundation and a nucleus of guys that were competitive,” said McGinest. “And not competitive against the other team. Competitive against each other. I remember yelling over at (Richard) Seymour during the game, Ty (Warren) and me saying, ‘They ain’t running over here!’ And he and Vrabel yelling back, ‘They ain’t running here.’ And then (Vince) Wilfork saying, ‘They sure as heck ain’t running here.'”

They pushed each other to the point that no one wanted to be the reason they lost. They all did their jobs at a high level. It makes me realize how lucky we were as Patriots fans. Bill Belichick was able to get together all these guys who made each other better. Yes, his schemes were good, but these were a group of extraordinary players. It also looks like they were all on the defensive side of the ball. In one off-season, Belichick got rid of the last of them. I think this clarifies why Junior Seau was brought back so early. Unfortunately, pre-game speeches only carry a team so far. There was no one on the sidelines (or in practice) challenging their team mates to play better. Now you have guys laughing and joking after the beating they took to end the season. A year ago, no one would’ve been smiling in that locker room.

Belichick got rid of all the vocal guys. There was no one left to police the locker room. There were no dissenting voices to challenge Belichick. I don’t mean like Adalius Thomas, but players who performed on the field week in and week out. Leaders who would stand up to the coach when needed. The only voice left was Belichick’s. It goes back further than these guys. He got rid of Lawyer Milloy (but was lucky to have Rodney Harrison to fill his leadership shoes). After he joined the Bills, his first week there in the film room players were laughing at another player for blowing a play. Milloy tells everyone that it isn’t funny. The new guy was already showing them how to do things the right way.

Brady talked about it to an extent on the radio show and after the loss. That he needed to be a better leader. That you just can’t replace all those guys they lost. This is why I think a lot of change is coming. I’m hoping Belichick realizes what was missing in the locker room and he goes out and gets free agents who bring that edge back. We were all waiting for the real Patriots to show up this year. Most of us didn’t realize the people who really made the “Patriot Way” go, are gone. Whether they can get it back remains to be seen. There is no one left there to teach it to the next guy. It seems that no one took that torch from any of them. They were content to have Vrabel, Harrison, Bruschi and Seymour do it all.

This is one of many problems the Patriots have going into the next year. They have no offensive or defensive coordinator. The Baltimore Ravens (and even some Patriots players) said it was like they were in the Patriot’s huddle throughout that game. Is there any excuse for another team being able to predict/defend the offense that well? Coaches, schemes, players, leadership, there’s a lot of work to do in Foxborough.

For any Patriots fans who would like more information about the leadership void and why things didn’t go so well this season, I recommend listening to this Patriots Football Weekly podcast.

Roger Goodell recently said the following according to ProFootballTalk:

Honestly, we don’t have a solution for it. We’ve had a lot of suggestions. A lot of people have talked about things from making scheduling changes to re-seeding the playoffs. A couple people have suggested the idea of potentially modifying the draft in certain ways. But none of these have been studied in depth.

This is in response to the reaction to the Indianapolis Colts to rest their players at a time when their team was 14-0 and had a real shot at going 16-0. The fans at the game were very upset. The Colts have a long history of resting their players late in the season once they have clinched home field advantage for the playoffs. The outcry was much larger this season because they were undefeated and then compounded by their actions afterward. Ranging from bogus excuses for why they played hard the week before (debunked by ProFootballTalk) to then risking injury to their players to establish arbitrary individual statistical milestones.

The NFL tossed out some ideas that Goodell mentioned. Giving out draft picks to teams that continue to play hard was the first one I heard. This one didn’t make much sense to me since they’d be rewarding teams that are heading to the playoffs. If the idea is parity, and they give the teams that did poorly better draft positions, it would be counteractive to reward good teams with additional draft picks, regardless of where they are in the order.

Another idea, adjusting the schedule so the last 3 games are division games won’t help much either. The weight the division has is already diminished when only 6 out of 16 games are division games. Using this year as an example, the Colts were uncatchable with 3 games left. It didn’t matter what those 3 games were.

I think the solution lies in re-seeding. The basis of teams resting is that they have established either the top seed in the playoffs or that whatever they do, their seed in the playoffs is set. They have to make a change that strikes at the reason for resting.

My suggestion is to continue to determine the playoff teams as they are now (division winners plus two wild card teams). Then add an emphasis to a team’s late season performance. I’m throwing out doubling the weight of the last 4 games of the season. In this scenario, this is what would’ve happened this season:

2009 NFL Playoffs Reseeded

The Colts and San Diego Chargers end up flipping seeds and the Cincinnati Bengals drop from the fourth to sixth seed in AFC. For the NFC, the top 3 seeds remain the same and the Arizona Cardinals drop from the fourth to sixth seed. At first glance, it doesn’t seem to solve many problems. Looking at the NFC, 5 teams ended up with the same weighted record. The New Orleans Saints rested their starters in the final weekend and lost. The Philadelphia Eagles would’ve had a shot at the #1 seed with a win. The Colts would’ve locked up the #1 seed with one more win and possibly been sitting at 15-0. Do they go for 16-0 then or lay down? I’d like to know how many teams would throw away a chance at going undefeated. As far as I know, this is the first time in NFL history that a team willingly lost the first game of their season.

So by weighting the last 4 games of the season, it rewards teams for playing well into the playoffs. The reseeding also eliminates a bad team in a bad division from getting a home playoff game. Their reward is a ticket to the playoffs. Performance on field gets you home field. I ran the “numbers” for the 2005 through 2008 seasons as well and you can see the end result in the gallery at the end of the post. Some quick (mostly New England Patriots-centric) observations (these all exclude the effect of how teams would’ve played had they known records would be weighted, so it assumes each team tried their best to win the game):

• In 2008, the Colts would’ve jumped from a wild card to the first seed. They started out slow but finished up on a long streak. Nice reward.
• In 2007, the Patriots still lock-up the #1 seed early, but the NFC field is shaken up. Do the New York Giants still make it to the Super Bowl? What would’ve been…
• In 2006, the AFC Championship game could’ve been the Colts at the Patriots instead of the other way around.
• In 2005, the seeding in the AFC is changed so the wild card teams host the division winners, but the games stay the same. If the results also stay the same, then the Patriots avoids the Denver Broncos (the team/coach (Shanahan) have had Bill Belichick’s number) and play the Colts instead. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Broncos that year and if the Patriots beat the Colts, they play at the Steelers in the AFC championship. I like their chances. And yes Steelers fans, this is why the Patriots are the team of the decade. Three Super Bowls to 2 and the Patriots were 2-0 against the Steelers in the playoffs. Both games were the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh. The Steelers never had to beat the Patriots to win a Championship.

Another season ends poorly. It was almost fitting that the Patriots had their worst game of the year when it mattered the most. They came into the season as Super Bowl favorites (according to Las Vegas odds) and didn’t come anywhere close to the expectations laid out by the media. This season has been an effort in setting new lows.

As far as I can remember, Brady was pulled from a game for the first time in his career because they were losing so badly (vs. the Saints). Brady and Belichick have now lost their first home playoff game. Everything was simply uncharacteristic Patriots this season. For me the most telling was the Patriots lost 5 games that they led at half time (4 of them were by 10 or more points). In Bill Belichick’s first 9 seasons as Patriots head coach (2000-2008) they had lost only 5 games they led at half time, total.

In retrospect, some are saying this is a “rebuilding” year. It’s hard to believe that when the offense had almost all of the players they had in 2007, or 2008 when they had Matt Cassel at QB and won more games. Was Jabar Gaffney the entire difference? Maybe the offensive line is getting older. The defense was supposed to get younger and faster along with a much improved secondary. Did trading Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour hurt them badly? Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi retiring?

I think they need a player that can be disruptive to the passing game, especially getting after the QB.  But, I believe more of the blame this year falls on the shoulders of the offense. They produced in the first half, but then were anemic in the second half in too many games. Wishful thinking is Tom Brady was still getting back into the game and both he and Randy Moss suffered from other undisclosed injuries. If that is age related, then it’s not likely to be a one time occurrence. Wes Welker will likely miss half of the 2010 season, maybe all of it. He certainly won’t be his old self in 2010.

The Patriots had a pretty good draft last year. They got a lot of young players who contributed and it filled out their roster pretty well. I’m hopeful they will focus on trying to get a few impact players (trading up) instead of collecting contributors (trading down). My list right now looks like outside line backer/pass rusher, outside wide receiver, running back, cornerback, tight end and offensive lineman. They could fill some of these in free agency as well. It will be interesting to see how it ends up going.

If it’s an uncapped year, the Patriots avoided any restrictions on signing players with the wild card round loss. They are a high revenue team, so I wonder if they will spend at the top. Traditionally they have spent near the cap limit. It’s an interesting dynamic for the owners. They want to win and could get players that normally would’ve been very difficult under a salary cap. On the other hand, if they’re spending a lot, it’s hard to convince the players that the current split is inequitable. They can also cut players with no concern for the dead money. This part could be bigger than many anticipate given Tom Brady’s comments about commitment, discipline, working hard, etc. in comparison to the past. I think some surprising cuts are coming.

It should be an interesting off-season.