The Haphazard Blog

I really enjoy the NFL Matchup show on ESPN, but I’m sure the ratings bear this out; I think I’m in the minority. The show dives into the X’s and O’s of football. The show currently has a home at 6:30 AM CT on ESPN Sunday mornings. Fortunately we are at a point where many have DVRs so it isn’t that bad. I’ve just observed the time slot/day for the show has progressively worsened over time. I hope the next step isn’t cancelation.

What makes the show most interesting to me is they are able to use the coach’s tape (which is basically inaccessible to the public) to show a more in depth breakdown of football plays.  I wish they devoted 30 minutes to every game. There is so much that goes on in football that simply is not explained to the viewer. For people who really love the game, they present it in a new way that helps you understand what is going on in a given play.

NFL Network has a show they air three times a week for 1 hour called Playbook. They go over the previous week in one show and they cover the AFC and NFC in their own shows for the upcoming week. This show definitely contributes to the fan’s understanding of the game.

This week I’ve read and heard from writers and commentators some variation on “real men don’t wear pink” in reaction to NFL players who will be wearing pink in support of breast cancer awareness this month. To be fair, they also commended the NFL and players for doing it. I’ve never been accused of going out too much, but do any of these people get out, watch TV or look at magazines? I see men wearing dress shirts and ties that either contain pink or are all pink. Even on air people at ESPN will have some pink in their shirts or ties at times. I know I’ve seen Tom Brady wearing stuff with pink in it during post game press conferences. Now it’s some big deal for players to wear pink cleats or gloves. I think we’re quite a bit beyond “real men don’t wear pink”.

Another week of the “Patriots don’t lose two games in a row” talk and they didn’t lose this one. They also looked pretty good. They played a little more balanced and Brady had a lot of time to make his throws unlike last week.

The offense looked better, but I don’t know if that’s because Brady had time to throw or if they were successful running the ball. With Wes Welker out, Randy Moss seemed to be doing everything. Later we found out he had a lot of back pain. Teammates were stretching him out during breaks and he had trouble getting his jersey on and off. Then CBS Sports put up an article saying he was dogging it the whole game. Brady looked more accurate and there was one point where some possible TDs were blown by Joey Galloway (stepped out of bounds at the back of the end zone) and Sam Aiken (cut his route short). The crowd also cheered Galloway when he made a catch. That is not a good sign for a WR when he gets the cheers for just catching the ball. I think the red zone offense is a concern at this point. They’re kicking a lot of FGs so far this season.

The defense looked even better. In the 2nd half, they allowed 78 yards, 2 1st downs in 15 total plays. Still no interceptions or real playmakers have emerged.  But it was solid team defense. Gary Guyton has done an admirable job filling in for Mayo.

Bill Belichick also made the gutsy call to go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 24. They were winning and it was only the 3rd quarter. He must’ve really felt they could get it pretty easy. Being up by only 6 points, missing that could’ve shifted momentum and led to a quick TD and them being down by 1.

Next up are the Ravens who people expect to be another good matchup for the Patriots. Their offense is a lot better, but their defense has fallen off a bit from past years.

I’m disappointed with that loss. It looked like Super Bowl XLII out there. The Jets walked the walk.

There was a lot said about Bill Belichick versus rookie QBs. I wasn’t really buying it. Usually rookie QBs are playing on a bad team. Belichick’s only loss to a rookie QB was against Ben Roethlisberger. Aside from the fact that he has proven to be a play maker, he was playing for a good team. (I can not call him a good QB when the passing playbook consists of 1 play per formation: Run the drawn route, then scramble.) I think Belichick strives when he has more film, not less. Same thing with Mark Sanchez. There is very little film on the guy. Let’s see how he looks in the second half of the season.

Tom Brady was a pinball back there. He wasn’t sacked so much, but he was hit and it seemed like he had little time to throw the ball. Despite that, the game was close. The difference was basically the way the Jets came out to start the second half. They got that quick TD (missed tackle on the long play) and it was enough of a gap. The Patriots could not get it done when they had the chance. Settling for FGs instead of TDs. It probably hurt not to have Wes Welker out there. His replacement for the game, Julian Edelman, had 8 catches, but I heard this morning that he was targeted 16 times. I’m sure they weren’t all drops, but I saw some for sure. Joey Galloway is supposed to be a really good WR, but it seems like his hands are worse than Ben Watson’s have been over the years. Isn’t Galloway a former Seahawk? That could explain it.

The defense did a good job for the most part. They were stopping the run and did well on third down. It certainly is better than was predicted. I would have to put the blame on the offense. They looked like the guys who played the first 54 minutes of the Bills game last week. They won’t be as prolific as 2007, but right now there is a chasm between how they look now and 2007. Surely they can only get (a lot) better going forward. And if the defense is better than expected, this could be a better all around team than 2007.

That was a great come back. It reminded me of the Super Bowl winning Patriots — making the plays they needed to win. They were lucky to win that game.

Tom Brady didn’t look comfortable until he was in the hurry-up offense. Was it his knee? Was the hurry up going so fast that he didn’t have time to think about his knee? He was uncharacteristically inaccurate. Some passes high, some passes low. There were also some drops in there. I think back to last year. Before Brady went down, both Randy Moss and Wes Welker fumbled the ball. But, Brady was accurate. I joked to my brother who was 84? Ben Watson came up big. He has been known more for dropping passes and not living up to the hype. Is this the (contract) year?

The defense was getting destroyed on screen passes and short passes. They did a good job against the run. The red zone defense was not good. I assumed this would be an area they’d really improve in this season. They were really bad at it last year and Bill Belichick usually fixes major deficiencies year-to-year. Jerod Mayo went down and I’m not sure how bad it is. He did run a bit after getting hurt. I’d think that means it isn’t season ending. My feeling going into the season was he was going to be our Ray Lewis — a real play maker. Didn’t have much of those. I can only think of the pair of sacks at the end of the game. Looks like they’ll be able to get to the passer on obvious passing situations. They really need some play makers on defense.

The big play was obviously the forced fumble on the kick off. I don’t think the defense forces a 3 and out if Buffalo doesn’t fumble.Heads up play by Brandon Meriweather to make the hit and hold Leodis McKelvin up for Pierre Woods to knock the ball lose. Stephen Gostkowski was also Johnny on the spot to get the ball.

Next week it’s the Jets. They’ve been doing a lot of talking (and I’m sure there will be more). I’d say no one does that and gets away with it, but Joey Porter was able to do it last year. I think if Brady has better accuracy the Pats will be fine.

Pittsburgh won last night in overtime. My feelings towards the Steelers (I hate them) not withstanding, the NFL seriously needs to fix OT. Below is my plan and some stats to support my thinking.

My primary issue with the NFL’s overtime rules is that it fundamentally changes the way a game is played. The teams use one strategy for 60 minutes and use another in OT. In OT, when a team approaches FG range, each play turns into the last play of the game (as if there isn’t time for another play.) So you have actions like:

• Kicking a FG on 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd down.
• Kicking a FG following a turnover.
• Running and kneeling to place the ball for a FG.

Everything they do is just to get the FG as the last play of the game.  A lot of normal game strategies are thrown out the window. If the goal of the NFL OT isn’t to simply prevent ties (if it is, then this system is perfect except they would need to have an unlimited amount of time to prevent all ties) I propose an alternative system that addresses the lop-sided coin flip and player’s concern over extra playing time.

First, some statistics I compiled.

Over the last 5 seasons, the percentage of teams winning the coin flip, taking the ball and winning was 31%, 33%, 42%, 38% and 53%. That averages out to 39% over 5 years. Over the last 5 seasons, the percentage of teams winning the coin flip and eventually winning the game (the team winning the coin flip is generally favored to have more possessions since OT is sudden death and the team losing the coin flip can only have as many possessions as their opponent unless they successfully attempt an onsides kick) was 69%, 53%, 58%, 56% and 73%. That averages out to 62% over 5 years and never below 50%. I think the fact that the winner of the coin flip always chose to receive speaks for itself. Everyone believes winning the coin flip is an advantage. Also, when has anyone wondered what would’ve happened if the other team won the coin toss at the beginning of the game? No one really sees the coin flip at the beginning of the game as being all that important (even TV coverage agrees since they often don’t show it, but you never miss the OT coin toss).

Over the last 5 years, OT games have averaged 2.35 possessions, had a length of 6 minutes and 33 seconds and 14.4 OT games per season. Going to a full 15 minute period would add on average, 7 minutes and 33 seconds to each team’s total game time.  However, I don’t like a plan to just play for 15 minutes. As I said, I don’t like that the game strategy changes. My suggestion instead is (I’m not the first person to suggest this):

• Two-3 minute and 15 second halves
• Use the same timing rules used in the last 5 minutes of a half during the game, no 2-minute warning
• 3 timeouts for each team
• Booth review for all replays
• In the regular season the game can end in a tie at the end of the 2 halves.
• In the postseason, halves are repeated until there is a winner at the end of both halves.

This eliminates the question of what would’ve happened if the other team won the coin flip. It adds back most football strategy like clock management and reduces playing for the FG. It doesn’t increase the average playing time and it keeps the OT sufficiently short enough for TV considerations. The rules are similar to the rest of the game except the time on the game clock is significantly less to start each half.

As many people say, it will probably take a Super Bowl to end in a tie at regulation and have the winner of the coin flip take the ball down the field and kick a FG on 1^stdown after a great offensive battle before they change these rules. Either way, I’ve posted this and now I can refer to it instead of repeating it. :)

My brother told me the Patriots traded Richard Seymour this morning. I was definitely shocked. Once I found out the compensation from the Raiders (2011 #1), I started to really think about it. My feeling was that’s it? Using the system from past drafts, that’s either a low 2010 #1 or 2010 #2.

I thought of other Patriots trades. They traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for a #2. Cassel signed a new contract worth Tony Romo money. Matt Schaub netted two #2s for Atlanta and he signed a smaller deal. Richard Seymour is an All-Pro and constantly mentioned as a top 5 lineman. They traded Deion Branch for a #1 before the 2006 season and he isn’t a #1 WR. Dallas traded a #1, #3 and #6 AND paid Roy Williams the same as Randy Moss ($9M/yr). Why did they trade him for so little?

I can see why they traded him in general. They can’t franchise him and Vince Wilfork at the end of the season. One of them would be able to walk. If either walked, the most they could get is a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2011 draft. Seymour is older. The defensive line was shutting down the run well all preseason using a lot of groupings including rookies like Ron Brace and Myron Pryor. Not sure how this affects the pass rush. There’s also potential to have a very high pick in a draft that may have a rookie wage scale. The team isn’t better, but hopefully they aren’t noticeably worse. I guess we’ll see as the season goes on. The defense is supposed to be the weak link with a returning Tom Brady.